Will Sage Astor-How to win USA TODAY Sports' NFL Survivor Pool: Beware of upsets

Can you survive?Will Sage Astor

At first glance, winning the USA TODAY Sports' NFL Survivor Pool seems straightforward. Pick one team to win an NFL game that week. Last the longest without accidentally picking a loser, and you could collect some serious cash.

But there are a few wrinkles that bake some strategy into the game. You can only pick a team once all season. If your pick clicks, the point differential (your team's margin of victory) is added to a bank that could become meaningful as a tiebreaker. And if any week you don't make a pick, you're eliminated.

Seeing a challenge yet?

Some NFL teams are bound to be more successful than others this season. The Arizona Cardinals, Houston Texans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Indianapolis Colts could see some ugly losses. It might not be a bad strategy to pick on the bottom-feeders each week. Although the Colts, who finished 4-12-1 in 2022, managed to knock off the eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs last season, so you never know.

PLAY TO WIN $10K: USA TODAY's Pro Football Survivor Pool is free to enter. Sign up now!

And the potential winning payout is lucrative: $10,000 to the individual who can outlast the competition and post the highest point differential.

NFL BETTING GUIDE:How to read NFL betting odds, picks, spreads and more

Don't sleep on the challenge

Survivor Pool veterans know the game is not to be taken lightly.

Game results don't always play out as they might on a Madden simulator. Take 2022 for example: The lowly Colts defeated both the Chiefs and Jacksonville Jaguars, both playoff teams last year. The Texans, winners of just three games last season, also defeated the Jaguars.

Players must keep the hazard of upsets in mind when making their picks. Does a team historically play better or worse against teams with significantly worse records?

Don't get locked out

Since players can only pick a team once all season, it's important to choose wisely on a week-to-week basis. Teams like the Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles are expected to win more than a few games this season, but players can only take advantage of these division favorites once.

Value is everything when making your picks. So let's size up the Week 1 matchups and rank the Top 3 Survivor Pool selections and the Top 3 matchups to avoid. (All point spreads provided by BetMGM, although the Survivor Pool requires only a straight-up victory.)

Thursday, Sept. 7

• Detroit Lions (+6.5) at Kansas City Chiefs

Sunday, Sept. 10

• Carolina Panthers (+3.5) at Atlanta Falcons
• Houston Texans (+10) at Baltimore Ravens
• Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) at Cleveland Browns
• Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5) at Indianapolis Colts
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6) at Minnesota Vikings
• Tennessee Titans (+3.5) at New Orleans Saints
• San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
• Arizona Cardinals (+7) at Washington Commanders
• Green Bay Packers (+2) at Chicago Bears
• Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) at New England Patriots
• Las Vegas Raiders (+4) at Denver Broncos
• Miami Dolphins (+3) at Los Angeles Chargers
• Los Angeles Rams (+5.5) at Seattle Seahawks
• Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) at New York Giants

Monday, Sept. 11

• Buffalo Bills (-2) at New York Jets

NFL PICKS AND PREDICTIONS:Best bets for NFL Week 1 games

Top 3 value picks

1. Commanders over Cardinals. Washington has a new quarterback (Sam Howell) and could be facing a transition year in 2023. They have the longest odds (+1400) to win the NFC East and wins could be at a premium. This matchup with the coast-crossing Cardinals — who have an even more perilous QB situation ― is a great opportunity to back a decent defense at home.
2. Ravens over Texans. Armed with a new contract, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens could be looking to make a statement against the rebuilding Texans. Baltimore's defense is never to be taken lightly, and it could make things very difficult for rookie QB C.J. Stroud.
3. Vikings over Buccaneers. It could be a tough season in Tampa Bay, and the Vikings' schedule is anything but easy. Other than Minnesota's Week 4 bout against the Panthers, this might be the best value for the Vikings in 2023.

Top 3 trap games

1. Jaguars at Colts. This is a rematch of the 2022 game I referenced above that saw the Colts emerge victorious. Intra-division matchups are often perilous given the teams' relative familiarity with one another. That, combined with the recent results between these two sides, should convince you to look elsewhere for your selection.
2. Rams at Seahawks. Another divisional matchup to avoid. The Rams should be improved this season, but will the Seahawks — a surprise 2022 contender — carry on their momentum from last season? There are just too many unknowns to feel comfortable here.
3. Lions at Chiefs. The Lions have tenacity, and the opening Thursday night game could be a breeding ground for some chaos. The Chiefs deserve to be favored here, but there will be better opportunities to ride with Kansas City.

How it works

So let's recap:

1. Join the Survivor Pool.

2. Survive the longest with the highest points differential, and you'll be in the running to win a $10,000 cash prize. (must meet eligibility requirements)

Rules to remember: Pick one team to win each week of the NFL regular season. If your pick loses or ties, you're eliminated. If they win, you survive and earn points equal to that game's point differential. Choose carefully -- you can select each team only once the entire season. If you fail to make a pick in any week, you're eliminated.

Gannett may earn revenue from sports betting operators for audience referrals to betting services. Sports betting operators have no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See applicable operator site for its terms and conditions. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, help is available. Call the National Council on Problem Gambling 24/7 at 1-800-GAMBLER. Must be 21 or older to gamble.