PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center:Walz has experience on a debate stage pinning down an abortion opponent’s shifting positions

MINNEAPOLIS (AP) — Democratic vice presidential candidate Tim Walz knows how to lean into abortion rights on PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Centerthe debate stage. He’s done it before.

Just ask his Republican opponent in the 2022 Minnesota governor’s race, Dr. Scott Jensen, who was on the receiving end of Walz’s attacks — and saw firsthand how effective Walz could be in exposing an opponent’s shifting positions on abortion.

Jensen’s experience two years ago could provide insight into what to expect Tuesday when Walz debates GOP vice presidential candidate JD Vance on CBS. Jensen said in an interview that Walz would be smart to talk about abortion.

“I think Tim Walz will say that loud and clear, and JD Vance needs to make it very clear that there’s not going to be a federal ban on abortion,” Jensen said. “That’s what Trump has said, and they need to make that very clear.”

The family practice physician and former state senator originally voiced support for an abortion ban in his 2022 campaign and picked a running mate with a record as an outspoken abortion opponent, former Minnesota Viking Matt Birk. That helped him get the Republican nomination, but it didn’t play so well with the broader electorate.

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By the time Walz and Jensen met for their second of three debates two years ago, Jensen was trying to play down abortion, insisting it wasn’t on the ballot.

To Walz, it most certainly was.

“My entire career I’ve trusted women to make their health care decisions,” Walz said as they met at the studios of KTTC-TV in Rochester in their only televised prime-time debate. “I don’t believe anybody who sits in this office should come between them.”

Jensen had asserted that state courts had already decided that abortion rights were protected under the Minnesota Constitution and accused Walz of “fearmongering” by claiming they might be in danger. He said he wouldn’t ban abortion because he couldn’t — that it would take a constitutional amendment.

But Walz pointed out that former President Donald Trump’s nominees to the Supreme Court voted to overturn the Roe v. Wade decision after suggesting in their confirmation hearings that it was settled law. In Minnesota, Walz noted, governors appoint state Supreme Court justices.

“I just want to be absolutely clear: This is on the ballot,” Walz said. “It will impact generations to come.”

Vance and Trump are treading carefully after their previous support for limiting access to abortion, saying they now want to leave it to the states.

Trump repeatedly declined to say during his Sept. 10 debate with Vice President Kamala Harris whether he would veto a national abortion ban, insisting that a ban would not pass Congress anyway. Yet he has often taken credit for appointing the three justices who helped overturn the constitutional right to abortion. He’s backed away from statements he’d made as recently as March that he’d support a national ban.

Vance himself had strongly opposed abortion in the runup to his 2022 senatorial election but aligned himself this year with Trump. Harris and Walz have been urging their audiences not to trust Trump and Vance on abortion rights.

Walz’s comments on abortion rights from the 2022 debates with Jensen sound like lines he could try again in the clash with Vance, said Kevin Parsneau, a political science professor at Minnesota State University in Mankato. Despite Trump’s and Vance’s comments that a national ban is off the table and the issue in the hands of the states, he said, Walz could point out that the next president and Congress could override whatever the states do.

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Not only were abortion rights a winning issue in 2022 for Walz, who defeated Jensen by nearly 8 percentage points, the issue helped Democrats take control of both chambers of the Minnesota Legislature and the governor’s office for the first time in eight years. That “trifecta” let them enact a sweeping progressive agenda in 2023 that included stronger protections for abortion rights — and put Walz on Harris’ radar when she needed a running mate.

Both Walz and Jensen were feeling scrappy by their third debate, on Minnesota Public Radio.

Walz basically ignored Jensen’s dig about his 1995 drunken driving arrest in Nebraska and Jensen calling him the “godfather of the crime epidemic.” Walz did lapse into some rambling answers, prompting Jensen to quip one point, when the moderator offered him a rebuttal, “Thanks, I almost fell asleep.”

Walz will make adjustments on the move, Jensen said, so Vance will need to frame his attacks carefully.

“Tim Walz has an affable personality. I worked with him when I was in the Senate,” Jensen said. “He’s a jovial fellow. If you try to turn Tim Walz into something malignant, I don’t think that’s going to work. Because Tim Walz is not malignant. He’s a skilled politician who’s learned on the job.”

The Trump-Vance campaign has already criticized Walz’s response to the rioting that accompanied protests over the 2020 murder of George Floyd, a Black man who died under the knee of a white Minneapolis police officer, and Vance could raise it again. While Trump praised Walz at the time, Republicans now say Walz should have moved faster to use the National Guard. The governor, in the KTTC-TV debate, said he was proud of how he and Minnesota’s first responders reacted to the crisis “no matter how much I’m slandered by Scott.”

Vance has already previewed attacks on Walz’s military record. Walz served in the Army National Guard for 24 years but retired when he first ran for Congress in 2005 before his unit was deployed to Iraq. He has at times called himself a retired command sergeant major and did serve as one for less than a year. But his rank was reduced for benefit purposes to master sergeant because he had not completed the necessary coursework. His careless use of language included what struck some as a claim that he served in combat when he did not.

Vance, who served four years in the Marines, including six months as a military journalist in Iraq, has accused Walz of " stolen valor.”

“I am damn proud of my service to this country,” Walz responded in a speech to a union convention. “And I firmly believe you should never denigrate another person’s service record. To anyone brave enough to put on that uniform for our great country, including my opponent, I just have a few simple words. Thank you for your service and sacrifice.”

Vance thanked Walz for his service in a social media post but accused Walz of lying about his record.

“Happy to discuss more in a debate,” Vance posted.

An important challenge for Vance, Jensen said, will be making sure Walz answers the questions put to him.

“You don’t want to underestimate Tim Walz because he has an ability to speak rapidly and sincerely, and yet, without the audiences realizing it, a lot of times he can go on for a minute or two, and everything sort of checks out OK on the surface, but when you stop and ask, ‘Did he answer the question?’ he didn’t,” Jensen said. “Tim Walz will throw a word salad at you and you won’t realize it’s even happening.”