NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center:2024 NFL draft first-round order: Carolina Panthers continue to do Chicago Bears a favor

The NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank CenterCarolina Panthers continue to lose games, much to the delight of Chicago Bears fans, whose own team is dismal and trending toward a top-five pick in the 2024 NFL draft.

The events of Week 11 further strengthened the Bears' chances of owning the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft, with the Arizona Cardinals also in the hunt. The Bears own the Panthers' first-round pick as a result of a 2023 pre-draft trade that gave Carolina the No. 1 pick, which it used to select Alabama quarterback Bryce Young. That trade now has the Bears — by way of the Panthers' league-worst 1-9 record — at the top of the draft order.

The draft order is determined by record, and uses strength of schedule as a tiebreaker (record and strength of schedule are official tiebreakers to determine the draft order). 

The final 14 first-round spots will be determined by playoff results. For now, those teams will be ordered based on playoff seed, if the season ended today.

The 2024 NFL draft is scheduled to be held in Detroit from April 25-27.

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NFL draft order

(as of Nov. 19; * denotes wild-card team and # denotes division leader)

1. Chicago Bears (from Panthers) — Carolina Panthers' record: 1-9 (strength of schedule: .559)
2. Arizona Cardinals — Record: 2-9 (.540)
3. New England Patriots — Record: 2-8 (.569)
4. New York Giants — Record: 3-8 (.513)
5. Chicago Bears — Record: 3-8 (.473)
6. Tennessee Titans — Record: 3-7 (.545)
7. Washington Commanders — Record: 4-7 (.442)
8. Atlanta Falcons — Record: 4-6 (.437)
9. Green Bay Packers — Record: 4-6 (.485)
10. New York Jets — Record: 4-6 (.520)
11. Los Angeles Chargers — Record: 4-6 (.529)
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Record: 4-6 (.549)
13. Los Angeles Rams — Record: 4-6 (.560)
14. Las Vegas Raiders — Record: 5-6 (.460)
15. Indianapolis Colts — Record: 5-5 (.495)
16. Denver Broncos — Record: 5-5 (.515)
17. Cincinnati Bengals — Record: 5-5 (.548)
18. Buffalo Bills — Record: 6-5 (.442)
19. *Minnesota Vikings — Record: 6-5 (.477)
20. *Seattle Seahawks — Record: 6-4 (.442)
21. *Arizona Cardinals (from Texans) — Houston Texans' record: 6-4 (.461)
22. *Pittsburgh Steelers — Record: 6-4 (.569)
23. *Dallas Cowboys — Record: 7-3 (.373)
24. *Houston Texans (from Browns) — Cleveland Browns' record: 7-3 (.544)
25. #New Orleans Saints — Record: 5-5 (.402)
26. #Miami Dolphins — Record: 7-3 (.426)
27. #San Francisco 49ers — Record: 7-3 (.495)
28. #Jacksonville Jaguars — Record: 7-3 (.540)
29. #Baltimore Ravens — Record: 8-3 (.541)
30. #Kansas City Chiefs — Record: 7-2 (.533)
31. #Detroit Lions — Record: 8-2 (.451)
32. #Philadelphia Eagles — Record: 8-1 (.452)

Teams without a first-round pick: Carolina Panthers, Cleveland Browns