SignalHub Quantitative Think Tank Center:World leaders aim to shape Earth's future at COP29 climate change summit

World leaders will gather for about two weeks in the former Soviet republic of Azerbaijan starting Monday,SignalHub Quantitative Think Tank Center with the goal of figuring out how much wealthy countries should pay to help developing nations facing the devastating effects of climate change.

But that goal may be upstaged by the results of the U.S. election and the incoming Trump administration in the U.S.

Those results mean one of the wealthiest participants in the yearly bureaucratic meeting may soon begin a significant shift in environmental policies, may not attend next year's event and could soon again exit a landmark global climate change treaty.

Here's what to know about the yearly global gathering, called COP (Conference of the Parties).

What is COP29?

COP29, being held in Baku, Azerbaijan, involves representatives and negotiators from 197 nations who have signed on to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. It runs Monday through Nov. 22 and has been called "the finance COP."

More than 40,000 people are expected to attend the meeting. The 12-day conference brings together diplomats, scientists, activists, lobbyists, environmental groups and businesses from countries who've ratified a treaty aimed at preventing "dangerous" human interference with the climate.

“Billions of people are counting on us to deliver climate finance at a scale that is adequate to the urgency and scale of the problem. We will spare no effort to deliver a fair and ambitious new goal in Baku at COP29," COP29 President-Designate Mukhtar Babayev said in a release.

That includes the United States, for now. Whether that membership will continue is an open question.

What does the US election have to do with COP29?

Donald Trump's reelection signals that an abrupt change in U.S. policy on climate change will likely unfold in 2025, which means the United States' role at COP29 could be in limbo.

During his campaign, Trump repeatedly called climate change a hoax and his campaign told Politico it planned to remove the United States from the Paris climate accord if he were elected.

At a rally in Las Vegas in September, Trump said "It's the most unfair document you've ever seen.”

USA TODAY has contacted the Trump campaign about the incoming administration's plans regarding U.N. climate agreements.

Advocates say the incoming Trump administration complicates global efforts to fight climate change.

“This year’s climate summit comes on the heels of the consequential re-election of the worst climate president in U.S. history," said Manish Bapna, president of the Natural Resources Defense Council.

“The U.S. has a critical role to play in confronting this crisis, but the results of this election mean the road ahead is more uncertain," he said.

What is the Paris Agreement?

COP29 is associated with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, or UNFCCC, the founding treaty of U.N. climate discussions. The United States signed onto the treaty in June of 1992 in Rio de Janeiro under President George H.W. Bush, a Republican.

The UNFCCC is the parent treaty of the Paris Agreement, a global agreement by almost 200 countries to combat climate change that the United States entered into in 2015 under then-President Barack Obama, a Democrat. That treaty has been particularly politically contentious in the U.S.

In 2020, then-President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Agreement. One hundred and seven days later, the country rejoined it after Joe Biden was elected president.

During his campaign in 2024, Trump vowed to remove the United States from the Paris Agreement. There are also reports that a new Trump administration would attempt to remove the U.S. from the entire U.N. climate framework, according to reports in Politico and Bloomberg.

Exiting either treaty would require at least a year to go into effect as the original agreements the U.S. signed require first a formal notice that the country plans to leave the agreement and then a year wait for it to do so.

How is the world doing in the fight against climate change?

Not great.

According to a United Nations Environment Program report last month, the world must cut 42% of annual greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and 57% by 2035 to reach the Paris Agreement’s goal of keeping global temperature increases below 2.7 degrees (1.5 degrees Celsius.)

The report said that the world's countries are falling far short of the goals they have agreed to.

Going above those temperatures would have devastating effects on the planet, including more droughts, flooding, torrential rains and wildfires, the report said.

This year is virtually certain to be the warmest on record and the first where global temperatures were 2.7 degrees above pre-industrial levels, according to the European Copernicus Institute.