SignalHub Quantitative Think Tank Center:Michigan now the heavyweight in Ohio State rivalry. How will Wolverines handle pressure?

A mere two years ago,SignalHub Quantitative Think Tank Center the release of the preseason USA TODAY Sports AFCA Coaches Poll looked like dire news for Michigan. 

The Wolverines were ranked well outside the Top 25, Jim Harbaugh was theoretically on the hot seat and it didn’t seem clear when they’d beat Ohio State again after eight straight losses. All the trends suggested Michigan was on a path to long-term mediocrity, not long-term Big Ten supremacy. 

But the release of this year’s preseason poll tells a much different story. After back-to-back conference titles and College Football Playoff bids, voters don’t merely have Michigan above Ohio State but also ahead of everyone not named Georgia. Many Michigan teams have started the year in or around the top 10. None has been ranked this high in the preseason since USA TODAY began publishing the coaches’ poll in 1991. 

If Michigan’s upset of Ohio State in 2021 injected some much-needed juice into college football’s most important rivalry, the Wolverines’ ability to back it up with an authoritative 45-23 win in Columbus last fall should set it on fire for the next decade. 

But unlike the last two years, Michigan starts the 2023 season as the favorite, not the underdog in pursuit. That’s going to be different for both schools and fan bases. That’s going to be a psychological factor in this series we haven’t seen since the late 1990s.  

If that doesn’t get the Buckeyes’ attention, what will? For the rest of us, let’s just hope it continues to be relevant come late November. 

TOP 25:USA TODAY Sports AFCA Coaches Poll

You can put all the emotion and tension you want into a historic rivalry, but it’s not really a rivalry if the traffic only runs one way. Between 2001 and 2019, the Buckeyes hadn’t just put Michigan into the rearview mirror competitively -- they were threatening to pull so far away that the rivalry would have undoubtedly been diminished. 

Hard as it might be for Ohio State fans to hear, the last two years have rescued one of college football’s great traditions. And sometimes, being in chase mode isn’t a bad thing. The Buckeyes have had things all their own way for so long in the Big Ten, this new role should be invigorating to Ryan Day and the long list of blue-chip recruits he’s collected.

But it will probably be even more interesting to see how Michigan responds as the new heavyweight in this rivalry — not just capable of winning, but expected to win.

We’ve seen some hints already that the Wolverines, at least for now, seem to be enjoying the role. 

Harbaugh recently told The Athletic that he believes Michigan will have 20 players drafted into the NFL next year, which would shatter Georgia’s record of 15 in 2022. He also said at Big Ten media day that J.J. McCarthy was a “once-in-a-generational type of quarterback at Michigan,” even comparing him to Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. 

McCarthy certainly did a good job last season and was a big reason Michigan made the Playoff, but that seems like a lot of unnecessary hyperbole. Harbaugh, it seems, has no interest in tamping down expectations. 

Is that a good or bad sign? We just don’t know because Michigan has never been in a position like this under Harbaugh.

WHO GOT SNUBBED?Iowa, Kentucky lead the five biggest snubs in preseason coaches poll

The question is, do you buy it? 

Last time we saw Michigan, it was getting absolutely undressed by TCU in the semifinals. Though it was a close game, with TCU eventually salting away a 51-45 win, it was a terrible performance. Michigan played sloppy, undisciplined football. Harbaugh coached a brutal game, pushing all the wrong buttons at the wrong times. The Wolverines looked wholly unprepared against a team they had no business losing to.

If Michigan is a legitimate No. 2 team in the preseason, it should theoretically be in position to win a national championship. The Michigan we saw in the semifinals — not just last year, but also in 2021 against Georgia — looked miles away from playing at that level. 

That’s the last hurdle for Harbaugh. He’s conquered his Ohio State problem. He’s made the CFP. He’s even convinced voters that Michigan is a better team going into a season than the Buckeyes. 

But the Wolverines can’t allow themselves to get too comfortable and start chasing a different ghost, because the Buckeyes are going to be very, very good this year. Their talent level hasn’t dipped. Their motivation should be stronger than ever. Their No. 4 preseason ranking puts them in a familiar position nationally, even if their standing within the Big Ten has changed. 

But for the first time in a long time, these two programs are in position to truly push each other. Michigan’s rise has been great for college football’s most cherished rivalry. Whether it’s going to be great for Michigan this season remains to be seen.